A comparison and calibration of integer and fractional-order models of COVID-19 with stratified public response.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Canadian province of Ontario has resulted in millions of infections and tens of thousands of deaths to date. Correspondingly, the implementation of modeling to inform public health policies has proven to be exceptionally important. In this work, we expand a previous model of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario, "Modeling the impact of a public response on the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, " to include the discretized, Caputo fractional derivative in the susceptible compartment. We perform identifiability and sensitivity analysis on both the integer-order and fractional-order SEIRD model and contrast the quality of the fits. We note that both methods produce fits of similar qualitative strength, though the inclusion of the fractional derivative operator quantitatively improves the fits by almost 27% corroborating the appropriateness of fractional operators for the purposes of phenomenological disease forecasting. In contrasting the fit procedures, we note potential simplifications for future study. Finally, we use all four models to provide an estimate of the time-dependent basic reproduction number for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Ontario between January 2020 and February 2021.

A novel statistical method predicts mutability of the genomic segments of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus has made the largest pandemic of the 21st century, with hundreds of millions of cases and tens of millions of fatalities. Scientists all around the world are racing to develop vaccines and new pharmaceuticals to overcome the pandemic and offer effective treatments for COVID-19 disease. Consequently, there is an essential need to better understand how the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 is affected by viral mutations and to determine the conserved segments in the viral genome that can serve as stable targets for novel therapeutics. Here, we introduce a text-mining method to estimate the mutability of genomic segments directly from a reference (ancestral) whole genome sequence. The method relies on calculating the importance of genomic segments based on their spatial distribution and frequency over the whole genome. To validate our approach, we perform a large-scale analysis of the viral mutations in nearly 80,000 publicly available SARS-CoV-2 predecessor whole genome sequences and show that these results are highly correlated with the segments predicted by the statistical method used for keyword detection. Importantly, these correlations are found to hold at the codon and gene levels, as well as for gene coding regions. Using the text-mining method, we further identify codon sequences that are potential candidates for siRNA-based antiviral drugs. Significantly, one of the candidates identified in this work corresponds to the first seven codons of an epitope of the spike glycoprotein, which is the only SARS-CoV-2 immunogenic peptide without a match to a human protein.

SARS-CoV-2 Quantum Sensor Based on Nitrogen-Vacancy Centers in Diamond.

The development of highly sensitive and rapid biosensing tools targeted to the highly contagious virus SARS-CoV-2 is critical to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. Quantum sensors can play an important role because of their superior sensitivity and fast improvements in recent years. Here we propose a molecular transducer designed for nitrogen-vacancy (NV) centers in nanodiamonds, translating the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA into an unambiguous magnetic noise signal that can be optically read out. We evaluate the performance of the hybrid sensor, including its sensitivity and false negative rate, and compare it to widespread diagnostic methods. The proposed method is fast and promises to reach a sensitivity down to a few hundreds of RNA copies with false negative rate less than 1%. The proposed hybrid sensor can be further implemented with different solid-state defects and substrates, generalized to diagnose other RNA viruses, and integrated with CRISPR technology.

Modeling the impact of public response on the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario.

The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and has since spread quickly around the world. To date, the virus has infected tens of millions of people worldwide, compelling governments to implement strict policies to counteract community spread. Federal, provincial, and municipal governments have employed various public health policies, including social distancing, mandatory mask wearing, and the closure of schools and businesses. However, the implementation of these policies can be difficult and costly, making it imperative that both policy makers and the citizenry understand their potential benefits and the risks of non-compliance. In this work, a mathematical model is developed to study the impact of social behaviour on the course of the pandemic in the province of Ontario. The approach is based upon a standard SEIRD model with a variable transmission rate that depends on the behaviour of the population. The model parameters, which characterize the disease dynamics, are estimated from Ontario COVID-19 epidemiological data using machine learning techniques. A key result of the model, following from the variable transmission rate, is the prediction of the occurrence of a second wave using the most current infection data and disease-specific traits. The qualitative behaviour of different future transmission-reduction strategies is examined, and the time-varying reproduction number is analyzed using existing epidemiological data and future projections. Importantly, the effective reproduction number, and thus the course of the pandemic, is found to be sensitive to the adherence to public health policies, illustrating the need for vigilance as the economy continues to reopen.